How to Track Ocean Freight Rates
Stop guessing where rates are heading. Use the same indices that carriers, NVOCCs, and top forwarders use to benchmark prices, spot trends, and time your bookings.
5+
major freight rate indices available
Weekly
most indices update frequency
12–18 mo
typical rate cycle length
Why You Need to Track Freight Rates
Market intelligence separates profitable forwarders from those guessing their way through rate negotiations.
Benchmark your buy rates
Know whether the rate your carrier or consolidator quotes is fair. If the SCFI shows Shanghai–Europe at $1,500 per TEU and your carrier quotes $2,200, you know there's room to push back.
Time your contract negotiations
Lock in annual contracts when indices show rates are at the bottom of the cycle. Avoid signing long-term deals at peak pricing that will become uncompetitive within months.
Anticipate GRI and surcharges
Rate indices trend upward weeks before carriers announce General Rate Increases. Watch the weekly movements and you'll see GRIs coming before they hit your inbox.
Advise your customers
Shippers respect forwarders who can explain why rates are moving. Showing a customer the SCFI chart while explaining a rate increase builds trust and reduces pushback.
Spot vs contract decisions
When indices show spot rates well below your contract rate, it's time to renegotiate or shift volume to the spot market. When spot rates spike above contracts, your locked-in rate is saving you money.
Major Freight Rate Indices
Each index tracks different routes, container types, and market segments. Here's what to use and when.
SCFI — Shanghai Containerized Freight Index
The most widely referenced index for Asia-outbound ocean freight. Tracks spot rates from Shanghai to major destinations including Europe, US West Coast, US East Coast, and Mediterranean. Published by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange since 2009.
Freightos Baltic Index (FBX)
A global container freight index that tracks spot rates on 12 major east-west and north-south trade lanes. Uses actual transaction data from Freightos platform users. The only major index with daily updates.
Drewry World Container Index (WCI)
Tracks composite and route-specific rates for 40ft containers on 8 key routes. Includes a weighted composite index that gives a single number for the global freight market. Widely used by analysts and media.
Xeneta Shipping Index (XSI)
Aggregates real contracted and spot rates from shippers, forwarders, and carriers. Distinguishes between long-term contract rates and short-term spot rates — the only major index that explicitly tracks both.
Container Trade Statistics (CTS)
Based on actual revenue data from participating carriers covering roughly 80% of global container capacity. Provides average revenue per TEU by trade lane. Lags by 2–3 months but reflects real prices paid, not quoted rates.
How to Read a Freight Rate Index
A number on a chart means nothing unless you know how to interpret it.
Understand the base unit
Most indices report rates per FEU (40ft container) or per TEU (20ft container). The SCFI uses USD per TEU for most routes but USD per FEU for US routes. Always check which unit the index uses before comparing.
Track the trend, not the absolute number
The specific dollar amount matters less than the direction and velocity. Is the index rising, falling, or flat? How fast? A 10% weekly increase for 4 consecutive weeks signals a strong upward trend that will likely continue.
Compare year-over-year, not just week-over-week
Freight rates are highly seasonal. A rate increase in August doesn't mean the market is surging — it's normal pre-peak season behavior. Compare current rates to the same week last year for meaningful context.
Watch the spread between spot and contract
When spot rates are significantly below contract rates, carriers may not honor contract allocations (they lose money on every box). When spot is well above contract, shippers on contracts get priority space.
Look at multiple indices, not just one
Each index has different methodology, coverage, and data sources. SCFI might show a 5% increase while FBX shows 8% on the same lane. The truth is somewhere in between. Using multiple sources reduces bias.
Factor in surcharges separately
Most indices track base ocean freight only — they don't include THC, BAF, or other surcharges. The total shipping cost can diverge significantly from the index when surcharges spike independently.
Using Indices for Spot vs Contract Decisions
When to lock in a contract and when to ride the spot market.
Lock in contracts when indices are below 12-month average
If current spot rates are 15–20% below the trailing 12-month average, it's a good time to negotiate annual contracts. You're likely near the bottom of the cycle.
Stay on spot when indices are at cycle peaks
If spot rates have spiked 50%+ above the 12-month average (common during peak season or disruptions), don't lock in a long-term contract at these levels. Ride spot and wait for normalization.
Split your volume 60/40
Experienced forwarders allocate roughly 60% of volume to contracts and 40% to spot. This gives you rate stability on the bulk of your cargo while maintaining flexibility to exploit favorable spot rates.
Watch index momentum before renewal
Start monitoring indices 8–12 weeks before your contract renewal. If rates are trending down, delay negotiations. If rates are trending up, lock in early before carriers revise their rate sheets.
Use index data in carrier negotiations
Walk into rate negotiations with printed index charts. Showing a carrier that SCFI has dropped 20% since your last contract undermines their rate increase request with hard data.
Common Rate Tracking Mistakes
These errors lead to bad decisions and lost margin.
Using a single index as gospel
Each index has its own methodology and data sources. The SCFI only tracks ex-Shanghai, so it misses Southeast Asian or Indian subcontinent origins entirely. Cross-reference at least two indices.
Ignoring the lag in published data
Some indices (CTS) lag by 2–3 months. Others (SCFI) are weekly but reflect last week's transactions. By the time you read the number, the market may have already moved.
Confusing TEU and FEU rates
A TEU rate for a 20ft box and a FEU rate for a 40ft box are not the same. FEU is roughly 1.5–1.8× TEU, not double. Mixing them up leads to wildly incorrect benchmarks.
Comparing index rates to your all-in cost
Indices track base ocean freight only. Your invoice includes THC, BAF, documentation, and handling. Comparing an all-in quote of $3,500 to an index showing $1,800 is meaningless — they're measuring different things.
Not tracking rates consistently over time
Checking rates once before a negotiation is better than nothing, but not nearly enough. Weekly rate tracking reveals patterns, seasonality, and trends that one-off checks miss entirely.